High-Frequency Update: 1-25-26

Jan. 25, 2026

By George W. Hammond, EBRC research professor

Arizona new business applications remained strong in December

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 2,609 for the week ended January 17, down from 2,869 the prior week. That was down 18.9% over the year and down 38.0% from 2019.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 259,552 for the week ended January 17, down from 330,963 the prior week. That was down 8.7% over the year and down 3.6% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate bounced up to 56.1% for the week ended January 17, up from 48.1% the prior week. That was up 0.5% over the year but down 3.9% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales fell to $123.9 million for the week ended January 22, down from $128.1 million the prior week. That was up 8.8% over the year but down 36.8% from 2019. New movie releases were down 33.7% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput ticked down to 15.2 million for the week ended January 17, down from 15.5 million the prior week. That was up 3.4% over the year and up 19.2% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for December ranged from a high of 1,290 to a low of 680. Overall, new business applications remain strong.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: TSMC is increasing its U.S. spending by up to 40%, fast-tracking new Arizona plants (KJZZ 1/15)
Automation / AI: Tracking AI’s contribution to GDP growth (FRBSL 1/12)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: As costs soar, about 70K fewer Arizonans sign up for Obamacare (AZMP 1/15)
Economy: Economic issues to watch in 2026 (Brookings 1/13)
Education / early childhood development: A new directions for students in an AI world: prosper, prepare, protect (Brookings 1/14)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Feds publish possible playbook for managing dwindling Colorado River supply (AZPM 1/14)
Housing / real estate: Trump wants to crack down on investor-owned homes. Analyst says they’ve already pulled back in AZ (KJZZ 1/12)
Commercial real estate: Phoenix to open more new hotel rooms in 2026 than nearly any other major US city (PBJ 1/20)
Mexico/trade: Not your grandfather’s factory: why tariffs won’t help Midwest manufacturing (Brookings 1/22)
Prices/inflation: How have prices changed in a year? NPR checked 114 items at Walmart (NPR 1/14)
Public finance: What 2026 brings to public finance (Governing 1/13)
Wages/income/wealth: Disability in the labor market: earnings (FRBNY 1/12)
Workforce/employment/labor market: The Quiet Revolution and the decline of routine jobs (FRBSF 1/9)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.