High-Frequency Update: 10-4-26

Oct. 4, 2026

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Unemployment insurance initial claims signal stable labor markets

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 2,362 for the week ending September 26, up from 2,343 the prior week. The number of initial claims was down 4.1% over the year and 23.9% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted) declined to 156,738 for the week ending September 26, down from 164,717 (revised up) the prior week. That was down 12.5% over the year and 12.1% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

Fuel prices moderated slightly. U.S. regular gas price softened after six consecutive weekly increases, edging down to $4.465/gallon for the week ending September 28, compared to $4.478/gallon the prior week. That was up 43.2% over the year and 32.7% from the 2023-25 average for this week. Diesel prices averaged $6.382/gallon in the U.S. for the week ending September 28, down 2.2% over the week yet up 70.0% over the year.

U.S. movie box office sales rose to $165.7 million for the week ending October 1, up from $150.8 million (revised up) the prior week. That was up 61.5% over the year and 47.6% from the 2023-25 average for this week. New movie releases were down 17.9% over the year and 9.2% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate fell to 69.7% for the week ending September 26, down from 71.1% the prior week. That was up 6.2% over the year and 4.2% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput rose to 16.9 million for the week ending September 26. That was down 1.0% over the year but up 0.1% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications is published by the Census Bureau only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for August ranged from 710 to 810. Applications that month were up 14.9% from the 2023-25 average for August.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: TSMC makes the world’s most advanced computer chips. Why invest in Arizona? (KJZZ 9/30)
Automation / AI: AI & the labor force: scenarios for stakeholders (Conference Board 9/15)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: States with housing shortages see higher poverty (Governing 9/30)
Economy: US economy grew a solid 2.2% in the second quarter, government says, upgrading previous estimate (AP 9/30)
Education / early childhood development: With vouchers and other school choice policies, read the fine print (Brookings 9/25)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Evaluation of U.S. policies to increase domestic access to critical minerals (RAND 9/29)
Federal statistics: A new census rule could reshape how your community is counted – here’s what to know (NLC 9/28)
Housing / real estate: Voters to weigh different approaches to housing affordability in November (Stateline 10/1)
Mexico/trade: Why U.S. diesel is so important to major trading partners (NYT 10/2)
Prices/inflation: U.S. and allies agree to release diesel reserves as prices soar (NYT 10/2)
Public finance: The US debt-to-GDP ratio since 1946 (AEA 9/11)
Wages/income/wealth: Falling behind? State and local government employee compensation since the Great Recession (Brookings 9/23)
Workforce/employment/labor market: The U.S. added only 29,000 jobs in September as job market lacks spark (NPR 10/2)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.