High-Frequency Update: 11-17-24

Nov. 17, 2024

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

Arizona new business applications weakened in October

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance bounced up to 3,024 for the week ended November 9, up from 2,820 the prior week. That was up 1.1% over the year but down 23.5% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance also rose for the week ended November 9 to 229,478. That was up from 212,743 the prior week. Claims were up 5.5% over the year but down 4.0% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate rose to 62.6% for the week ended November 9, up from 60.8% the prior week. That was down 3.4% over the year and down 9.3% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales ticked down to $96.5 million for the week ended November 14, down from $98.3 million the prior week. That was down 11.8% over the year and down 43.7% from 2019. New movie releases were down 43.4% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput rose modestly to 16.4 million for the week ended November 9, up from 16.2 million the prior week. That was down 0.9% over the year but up 2.9% from 2019.

Weekly data Arizona new business applications will continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In October, Arizona new business applications fell over the year for four consecutive weeks (weeks ended October 5, 12, 19, and 26). Applications were up over the year for the week ended November 2, at 700.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Could Trump halt billions of dollars for AZ’s semiconductor industry? (AR 11/8)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Three-quarters of U.S. adults are now overweight or obese (NYT 11/14)
Economy: Banking system vulnerability: 2024 update (FRBNY 11/12)
Education / early childhood development: How Arizona cities rank nationwide for student loan delinquency rates (PBJ 11/11)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Under Trump, prepare for new US transportation priorities (Bloomberg 11/12)
Mexico/trade: How business owners can prepare for potential tariff hikes in 2025 (PBJ 11/13)
Prices/inflation: The impact of global shipping cost surges on US import price inflation (FRBB 11/14)
Wages/income/wealth: Do cost-of-living shocks pass through to wages? (FRBNY)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Manufacturing already has made a comeback (Stateline 11/12)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.