High-Frequency Update: 2-16-25

Feb. 16, 2025

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

U.S. hotel occupancy ticked down last week

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 2,975 for the week ended February 8, down from 3,245 the prior week. That was down 14.5% over the year and down 10.1% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance also fell for the week ended February 8, reaching 231,006. That was down from 241,101 the prior week but up 3.1% over the year. Claims were down 4.8% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate ticked down to 55.9% for the week ended February 8, down from 56.5% the prior week. That was down 0.5% over the year and down 6.7% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales plummeted to $74.9 million for the week ended February 13, down from $106.2 million the prior week. That was down 9.5% over the year and down 56.9% from 2019. New movie releases were down 38.9% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput bounced up modestly to 14.3 million for the week ended February 8, up from 14.1 million the prior week. That was down 1.8% over the year but up 11.5% from 2019.

Weekly data Arizona new business applications will continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In December, new business applications ranged from 490 to 720. Over-the-year growth was mixed, with some weeks significantly higher than last year and some lower.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Did card-present fraud rates decline in the United States after the migration to chip cards? (FRBKC 2/12)
Automation / AI: Lawmaker warns of ‘patchwork’ state AI laws (Route Fifty 2/13)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Why American mobility ground to a halt (Bloomberg 2/12)
Economy: US retail sales plunged along with temperatures in January after a bustling holiday season (AP 2/14)
Education / early childhood development: A deep dive on U.S. reading and math scores, and what to do about them (NPR 2/11)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: A fix for America’s infrastructure paralysis (Governing 2/14)
Housing / real estate: Foreclosures up statewide over the past year (AZPM 2/12)
Commercial real estate: Phoenix named a top 10 market for commercial real estate investment (PBJ 2/10)
Mexico/trade: What’s Trump’s plan on tariffs? (Brookings 2/13)
Prices/inflation: Why this week’s inflation report is especially important (WSJ 2/11)
Public finance: What are the risks of a rising federal debt? (2/12)
Wages/income/wealth: Breaking down auto loan performance (FRBNY 2/13)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Layoffs accelerate at federal agencies with more cuts to come (NPR 2/14)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.