High-Frequency Update: 2-2-25

Feb. 2, 2025

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

U.S. hotel occupancy remained weak last week

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 2,962 for the week ended January 25, down from 3,219 the prior week. That was down 21.6% over the year and down 19.5% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance also dropped for the week ended January 25, falling from 284,325 the prior week to 227,362. That was down 13.9% over the year and down 9.3% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate drifted down to 54.3% for the week ended January 25. That was down from 55.8% the prior week and down 3.4% over the year. The rate was also down 6.4% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales plummeted to $87.5 million for the week ended January 30, down from $113.8 million the prior week. That was up 16.3% over the year but down 36.5% from 2019. New movie releases were down 37.6% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput declined from 14.7 million the prior week to 14.3 million for the week ended January 25. That was up 1.9% over the year and up 5.3% from 2019.

Weekly data Arizona new business applications will continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In December, new business applications ranged from 490 to 720. Over-the-year growth was mixed, with some weeks significantly higher than last year and some lower.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: State of the states 2025 (Site Selection)
Automation / AI: Technology vs. the middle class (FRBP)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Rural Arizonans could feel outsized burden of proposed Medicaid cuts (AR 1/22)
Economy: 5 economic forces that could chape the first year of Trump’s presidency (1/24)
Education / early childhood development: Phoenix Elementary district considers closing 2 schools as enrollment shrinks (AR 1/24)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: What Trump’s infrastructure announcements mean for states (Governing 1/23)
Housing / real estate: LA fires likely mean wave of renters and homebuyers headed to metro Phoenix (AR 1/22)
Mexico/trade: Trump says 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico coming Feb. 1 as he signs several orders on the economy (AP 1/20)
Public finance: Follow the money: tax inheritances, not estates (Brookings 1/23)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Trump seeks to end telework for federal workers (NPR 1/20)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.