High-Frequency Update: 2-9-25

Feb. 9, 2025

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up last week

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up for the week ended February 1, reaching 3,175. That was higher than the prior week at 3,057 but was down 14.8% over the year and down 10.2% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance also rose for the week ended February 1, hitting 239,690. That was up from 228,320 the prior week and up 2.1% over the year. Claims were down 5.7% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate rose to 56.5% for the week ended February 1, up from 54.3% the prior week. That was up 2.4% over the year but down 0.4% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales rose to $105.4 million for the week ended February 6, up from $87.5 million the prior week. That was up 33.0% over the year and up 3.4% from 2019. New movie releases were down 35.1% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput ticked down to 14.1 million for the week ended February 1, down from 14.3 million the prior week. That was up 1.2% over the year and up 11.5% from 2019.

Weekly data Arizona new business applications will continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In December, new business applications ranged from 490 to 720. Over-the-year growth was mixed, with some weeks significantly higher than last year and some lower.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Tech and chip manufacturing help make metro areas ‘dynamic’ (Route Fifty 2/4)
Automation / AI: How much are businesses using artificial intelligence? (FRBSL 2/5)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Breaking down U.S. population growth: migration and natural increase (FRBSL 2/6)
Economy: Quarterly industry-level labor productivity data for the U.S. (FRBC)
Education / early childhood development: A guide to what the U.S. Education Department does (and doesn’t) do (NPR 2/4)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: AI’s power requirements under exponential growth (RAND 1/28)
Housing / real estate: Are first-time home buyers facing desperate times? (FRBNY 2/3)
Mexico/trade: Tariffs and trade: how Arizona fits into the commerce linking Mexico, Canada, others (AR 2/5)
Prices/inflation: Breaking down inflation by race, age, parenthood, and more (FRBM)
Public finance: Tracking federal expenditures in real time (Hamilton Project 2/3)
Wages/income/wealth: Has pay kept up with inflation? (Brookings 1/31)
Workforce/employment/labor market: What would reducing the federal workforce look like for America? (Urban Inst 1/30)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.