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High-Frequency Update: 3-29-26

March 29, 2026
By George W. Hammond, EBRC research professor

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked down last week

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked down to 2,384 for the week ended March 21, down from 2,479 the prior week. That was down 36.9% over the year and down 29.9% from 2019.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance also fell for the week ended March 21, reaching 185,980. That was down from 190,982 the prior week. It was also down 7.0% over the year and down 2.1% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate rose to 67.7% for the week ended March 21, up from 65.7% the prior week. That was up 2.6% over the year but down 2.7% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales rose to $193.0 million for the week ended March 26, up from $127.8 million the prior week. That was up 93.5% over the year but down 5.4% from 2019. New movie releases were down 50.7% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput rose to 18.3 million for the week ended March 21, up from 18.0 million the prior week. That was up 0.7% over the year and up 9.0% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for February ranged from 800 to 830. Overall, new business applications remain strong, compared to pre-pandemic levels, but have weakened compared to 2023.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: The choking of Hormuz (NYT 3/25 – interesting visual)
Automation / AI: CFOs admit privately that AI layoffs will be 9x higher this year – and still a fraction of ‘doomsday’ predictions (Fortune 3/24)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Report: Nearly half of U.S. households are not economically secure (Governing 3/26)
Federal statistics: States lose an early warning system as monthly census tax data disappear (TPC 2/26)
Economy: The impacts of unauthorized immigration on U.S. labor and housing markets: New evidence from administrative microdata (FRBD)
Education / early childhood development: Survey shows alarming drop in working conditions for teachers: What are we doing about it? (Brookings 3/23)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Processing power: the effect of data centers on wholesale electricity markets (FRBD)
Housing / real estate: Event recap – Reimagining homeowners insurance amid growing climate risk (Hamilton Project 3/20)
Commercial real estate: Phoenix ranks 13th for office-to-apartment conversions as 1,550 units take shape (PBJ 3/25)
Mexico/trade: China’s electric trade (FRBNY 3/23)
Prices/inflation: National gas average jumps one dollar in one month (AAA 3/26)
Public finance: Gas prices rise again as some states consider tax holidays (Stateline 3/25)
Wages/income/wealth: Charted: The college pay gap in every U.S. state (Visual Capitalist 2/27)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Breakeven employment growth: estimate range widens in 2026 (FRBSL 3/24) 

Weekly Indicators 

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.