High-Frequency Update: 6-7-26

Today

By Niaoniao You, EBRC senior economic forecaster

Initial claims for unemployment insurance remained low in May

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked down to 3,002 for the week ended May 30, down from 3,029 the prior week. That was down 23.3% over the year and down 30.6% from 2019.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance slid to 187,978 for the week ended May 30, down from 188,099 the prior week. That was down 9.4% over the year and down 3.6% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate dropped to 62.2% for the week ended May 30, down from 67.9% the prior week. That was up 2.0% over the year but still down 3.6% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales fell to $268.8 million for the week ended June 4, down from $272.3 million the prior week. That was up 29.7% over the year and up 7.1% from 2019. New movie releases were down 54.2% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput declined to 17.8 million for the week ended May 30, down from 18.9 million the prior week. That was up 0.1% over the year and up 7.9% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for April ranged from 820 to 920. Overall, new business applications have been trending up but remain below levels reached in 2023.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Why some Canadians are avoiding the US (ADS 5/27)
Automation / AI: AI use at U.S. businesses (Census 5/26)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Food providers report more clients as AZ SNAP caseload cut in half (AZPM 5/22)
Federal statistics: Restoring trust in economic statistics: why it matters and how we fix it (Brookings 5/26)
Economy: Kevin Warsh’s Job Just Got a Lot More Complicated (WSJ 6/5)
Education / early childhood development: Federal education support centers still find key state gaps (RAND 5/23)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Tucson, Phoenix create water-sharing plan as Colorado River shrinks (ADS 5/24)
Housing / real estate: What could a landmark federal housing bill mean for southern Arizona? (AZPM 5/29)
Commercial real estate: Empty federal buildings are a growing problem – and an opportunity (CSM 5/29)
Mexico/trade: Mapped: The states landing the most foreign investment (Visual Capitalist 4/28)
Prices/inflation: Hormuz closure offsets tariff reversal; U.S. left with upside inflation risk (Dallas Fed 6/2)
Public finance: Supervisors advance $1.8B Pima County budget plan (ADS 5/27)
Wages/income/wealth: Assessing the current state of wage inflation (FRBNY 5/26)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Phoenix built an empire of cubicle jobs. AI is coming to tear it down (WSJ 5/26)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.