High-Frequency Update: 7-19-26

Today

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Gas prices picked up with renewed tensions in the Middle East

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 3,098 for the week ended July 11, down from a revised-up 2,089 the prior week. The increase was largely due to seasonal hiring patterns; the number of initial claims was down 33.8% over the year and down 45.9% from 2019.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted) rose to 244,826 for the week ended July 11, up from 225,992 the prior week. That was down 6.2% over the year and up 0.5% from 2019.

U.S. regular gas price declined to $3.855/gallon for the week ended July 6, up from $3.777/gallon the prior week. That followed seven consecutive weekly declines and was up 23.2% over the year.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate rebounded to 67.6% for the week ended July 11, up from 63.5% the prior week, supported by World Cup host cities and events in Las Vegas. That was up 0.6% over the year but down 2.8% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput rose to 18.9 million for the week ended July 11, up from 18.1 million the prior week. That was down 2.2% over the year yet up 4.0% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales declined to $194.1 million for the week ended July 16, down from $190.0 million the prior week. That was down 35.3% over the year and 3.9% from 2019. New movie releases were down 9.2% over the year and 50.4% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications is published by the Census Bureau only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for June ranged from 750 to 880. Overall, new business applications continue to trend up but remain a touch below levels reached in 2023.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: What to know about U.S. oil production and consumption in 6 charts (Pew 7/7)
Automation / AI: Innovation Booms, Easy Financing, and Human Capital Accumulation (FRBA)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: The landscape of elder care in the United States: Part 1 – where older Americans live and why it matters (FRBC)
The landscape of elder care in the United States: Part 2 – the cost and quality of care (FRBC)
Economy: Warsh’s First Big Call: Whether to Undo Last Year’s Cuts (7/12 WSJ)
Education / early childhood development: Some good – and not-so-good – news on kid’s well-being (Governing 6/25)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Climate change could double household water costs in some cities, study finds (Stateline 7/9)
Housing / real estate: Evicting Wall Street From the Housing Market Will Be Messy (WSJ 7/16)
Mexico/trade: USMCA review reviewed: lessons from the first use of USMCA’s review mechanism (Brookings 7/2)
Prices/inflation: More tariff pass-through is in the pipeline (FRBNY 7/8)
Public finance: Gas tax relief leaves a $533 million road funding gap (Governing 7/9)
Wages/income/wealth: The racial wealth gap undermines the declaration’s promise (Brookings 7/6)
Workforce/employment/labor market: This factory was severely short on workers. Then it offered flexible work (NPR 7/8)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.