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High-Frequency Update: 7-21-24

July 21, 2024
By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance spiked last week

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Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance spiked to 4,865 for the week ended July 13, up from 4,423 the prior week. That was up 1.3% over the year but down 15.0% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 8.0% over the year for the week ended July 13. Claims rose to 279,032, which was up from 242,208 the prior week and up 14.5% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate rebounded to 69.2% for the week ended July 13, up from 61.3% the prior week. That was down 3.9% over the year and down 6.7% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales dropped to $187.1 million for the week ended July 18. That was down from $242.0 million the prior week and down 11.9% over the year. Sales were down 7.4% from 2019 while new releases were down 47.9%.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput rose to 19.3 million for the week ended July 13, up from 18.2 million the prior week. That was up 6.6% over the year and up 5.8% from 2019.

Arizona new business applications rose to 640 for the week ended July 13, up from 520 for the prior week. That was down 13.5% over the year.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Improving employment outcomes for U.S. young adults (FRBSL 7/17)

Economy: Fresh tariffs could see interest rates stay higher for even longer, IMF warns (WSJ 7/16)

Education / early childhood development: Plummeting enrollment leads more colleges to close (Governing 7/12)

Energy / environment / infrastructure: Electricity providers hard pressed to keep up with growing tech-heavy demand (FRBD 7/10)

Housing / real estate: Arizona ranks as 14th priciest state for renters. Here’s what you need to earn to afford rent (AR 7/15) 

Prices/inflation: US disinflation and the COVID-19 supply shock (Brookings 7/18)

Public finance: Lessons from the biggest business tax cut in US history (NBER)

Wages/income/wealth: The pay raise picture is shifting in 2024. Here’s what’s changing and how 2025 salary budgets are shaping up. (PBJ 7/15) 

Workforce/employment/labor market: Recent spike in immigration and easing labor markets (FRBSF 7/15)

Weekly Indicators 

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.