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High-Frequency Update: 7-6-25

July 6, 2025
By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance fell last week

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 3,231 for the week ended June 28, down from 3,473 the prior week. That was down 25.6% over the year and down 23.2% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 231,548 for the week ended June 28, up from 227,516 the prior week. That was down 3.3% over the year but up 3.1% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate rose to 71.9% for the week ended June 28, up from 70.5% the prior week. That was unchanged over the year but down 4.8% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales spiked to $243.3 million for the week ended July 3, up from $188.7 million the prior week. That was down 14.4% over the year and down 26.4% from 2019. New movie releases were down 52.3% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput rose to 19.7 million for the week ended June 28, up from 19.2 million the prior week. That was down 0.5% over the year but up 7.1% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In May, weekly new business applications ranged from 670 to 870. Overall, applications were up significantly over the year in May.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Tariffs are encouraging companies to ‘reshore’ jobs to US. Here’s where AZ ranks (AR 6/13)
Automation / AI: Will AI eat the internet? (ITPro)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Proposed federal budget signals cuts to core economic data capacity (C2ER 6/6)
Economy: Americans turn cautious and retail sales slide after a spring rush to beat tariffs (AP 6/17)
Education / early childhood development: Perceptions of US public schools’ political leanings and the federal role in education (Brookings 6/17)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Parts of Sabino Canyon, Mt. Lemmon, others could be sold under Senate bill (ADS 6/16)
Housing / real estate: Homeowners insurance in an era of climate change (Brookings 6/17)
Commercial real estate: Developers are finally dealing with the office-oversupply problem (WSJ 6/17)
Mexico/trade: Import prices held steady in May (WSJ 6/17)
Prices/inflation: Oil prices climb as Trump calls for Iran’s ‘surrender’ (NYT 6/17)
Public finance: The path to record deficits (WSJ 6/18)
Wages/income/wealth: More than 1,000 Americans per day earned millionaire status in 2024 (Forbes 6/20)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Employment records: the missing piece in the US labor market? (Brookings 6/13)

 

Weekly Indicators 

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.