High-Frequency Update: 7-6-26

July 6, 2026

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Gas price pressure eases as summer travel begins

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased again to 2,575 for the week ended June 27, down from 2,883 the prior week. That was down 22.2% over the year and down 38.8% from 2019.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped to 213,550 for the week ended June 27, up from 208,005 the prior week. That was down 7.3% over the year and down 4.9% from 2019.

U.S. regular gas price declined to $3.831/gallon for the week ended June 29, down from $3.914/gallon the prior week. That was a consecutive sixth weekly decline but still up 21.1% over the year.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate rose to 72.2% for the week ended June 27, up from 71.3% the prior week. That was up 0.4% over the year but down 4.4% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales slid to $252.6 million for the week ended July 2, down from $333.4 million the prior week. That was up 0.3% over the year but down 23.6% from 2019. New movie releases were down 25.4% over the year and 50.5% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput declined to 18.1 million for the week ended July 4, down from 19.5 million the prior week. That was down 1.6% over the year yet up 9.1% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for May ranged from 770 to 880. Overall, new business applications have been trending up but remain a touch below levels reached in 2023.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Honeywell Aerospace launches as standalone Phoenix company (AR 6/29)
Automation / AI: Is an AI jobs apocalypse coming? Three economists square off (WSJ 6/28)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: America is turning 250. Here’s how immigration may shape its future. (Brookings 6/25)
Economy: U.S. snaps hiring hot streak with only 57,000 jobs added in June (WSJ 7/2)
Education / early childhood development: Some good – and not-so-good – news on kid’s well-being (Governing 6/25)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Lake Powell hits lowest summer level ever, raising risk of ‘dead pool’ (USA Today 6/25)
Housing / real estate: Report: What to know from the first national renters survey (Governing 6/26)
Mexico/trade: U.S. plunges trade pact with Canada and Mexico in doubt (WSJ 7/1)
Prices/inflation: Tomato prices are soaring and shoppers are feeling the impact (USA Today 6/30)
Public finance: States played defense this year but bigger fiscal tradeoffs ahead (Pew 6/30)
Wages/income/wealth: The high-stakes effort to repair the American retirement system (WSJ 6/27)
Workforce/employment/labor market: How shifts in labor supply and demand shape outcomes for young workers (FRBSL 6/30)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.