High-Frequency Update: 8-10-25

Aug. 10, 2025

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

U.S. hotel occupancy rate fell last week

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked down to 3,508 for the week ended August 2, down from 3,514 the prior week. That was down 12.6% over the year and down 10.2% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly to 194,988 for the week ended August 2, up from 193,790 the prior week. That was down 4.4% over the year but up 8.4% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate fell to 69.5% for the week ended August 2, down from 71.5% the prior week. That was up 0.1% over the year but down 7.1% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales fell to $180.9 million for the week ended August 7, down from $266.8 million the prior week. That was down 28.9% over the year and down 20.5% from 2019. New movie releases were down 49.2% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput ticked down to 19.5 million for the week ended August 2, down from 19.6 million the prior week. That was up 2.5% over the year and up 7.4% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In June, weekly new business applications ranged from 650 to 970. Overall, applications were up significantly over the year in June.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Raytheon in Tucson to build more missiles for allies under $3.5B contract (AR 8/5)
Automation / AI: The AI boom’s hidden risk to the economy (WSJ 8/2)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Hispanic, Asian people drive population boom, stopping losses in many states (Stateline 8/1)
Federal statistics: Trump’s firing of BLS official casts shadow on federal data gathering (CSM 8/5)
Economy: Former BLS commissioner says it’s not possible to rig jobs numbers (NPR 8/4)
Education / early childhood development: Partnering with the Department of Labor to create a national skills currency (US DoEd 7/22)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Data centers are on the rise in Arizona. Are they a good idea in the desert? (AR 8/4)
Housing / real estate: A check-in on the mortgage market (FRBNY 8/5)
Mexico/trade: Trump’s tariffs could squeeze US factories and boost costs by up to 4.5%, an new analysis finds (NPR 8/2)
Prices/inflation: Breaking down the latest fight against inflation (FRBP)
Wages/income/wealth: That extra money: a primer on discretionary income (FRBSL 8/96)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Unemployed Americans endure longer job searches in a cooling market (WSJ 8/2)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.