High-Frequency Update: 8-16-26

Today

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Slower leisure and hospitality activities as schools started

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 2,854 for the week ending August 8, up from 2,804 the prior week. The number of initial claims was down 20.2% over the year and 25.4% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted) climbed to 189,203 for the week ending August 8, up from 172,472 the prior week. That was down 5.1% over the year and 7.6% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. regular gas price fell to $4.006/gallon for the week ending August 10, down from $4.079/gallon the prior week. That was up 28.5% over the year and 15.8% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. movie box office sales fell back to $295.0 million for the week ending August 13, down from record-high $637.4 million the prior week due to the opening weekend sales from Spider-Man: Brand New Day. Domestic box office sales were up 50.2% over the year and 46.6% from the 2023-25 average for this week. New movie releases were down 10.9% over the year and 9.0% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate fell to 70.0% for the week ending August 8, down from 71.3% the prior week. That was up 2.9% over the year and 2.4% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput declined to 18.4 million for the week ending August 8. That was down 2.5% over the year but up 0.1% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications is published by the Census Bureau only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for July ranged from 680 to 810. Overall, new business applications continue to trend up, slightly below levels reached in 2023.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Arizona’s workforce crowded and uncoordinated, new series finds (ITB 8/7)
Automation / AI: AI's impact on labor and hiring (FRBNY 8/5)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: What are the patterns of interstates migration of college-educated workers? (Upjohn 8/6)
Economy: Consumer sentiment overcame headwinds in July in most metros (PBJ 8/9)
Education / early childhood development: What's the value of a high school diploma in Arizona? These journalists looked into it (KJZZ 8/10)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: How Metro Phoenix cities plan to cope with less Colorado River water (AR 8/4)
Housing / real estate: Home building is sputtering, but lumber prices haven’t been so high in years (WSJ 8/5)
Mexico/trade: The anatomy of tariff pass-through into consumer prices (NBER)
Prices/inflation: Iran war pushes companies to raise prices on beer, paint, fries and more (WSJ 7/31)
Public finance: Oregon looks beyond the gas tax to fund its roads (Governing 8/10)
Wages/income/wealth: Behind high credit-card delinquencies: stale, charged-off loans (WSJ 8/11)
Workforce/employment/labor market: What’s behind the sharp drop in labor force participation? (FRBSL 8/4)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.