High-Frequency Update: 8-2-26

Today

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Gas prices edged up amid consumer resilience

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 2,872 for the week ending July 25, down from 3,177 the prior week. The number of initial claims was down 18.3% over the year and down 28.5% from 2019.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted) fell to 175,573 for the week ending July 25, down from 193,376 the prior week. That was down 9.4% over the year and down 1.9% from 2019.

U.S. regular gas price climbed to $4.096/gallon for the week ending July 27, up from $4.001/gallon the prior week. That was up 31.2% over the year and highest since mid-June.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate climbed to 72.5% for the week ending July 25, up from 72.4% the prior week. That was up 1.4% over the year but down 6.5% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput rose to 19.1 million for the week ending July 25. That was down 2.6% over the year yet up 4.9% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales moderated to $235.8 million for the week ending July 30, down from $306.1 million the prior week. That was down 11.8% over the year and 6.5% from 2019. New movie releases were down 21.1% over the year and 51.7% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications is published by the Census Bureau only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for June ranged from 750 to 880. Overall, new business applications continue to trend up but remain a touch below levels reached in 2023.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Arizona ranks No. 4 for economy but drops in US News Best States rankings (PBJ 7/27)
Automation / AI: New survey findings on AI adoption and its effects on employment and productivity (FRBSL 7/16)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: America’s big cities are rapidly losing kids (WSJ 7/26)
Economy: Do we really feel this lousy about the economy, or is key survey broken? (WSJ 7/10)
Education / early childhood development: Arizona can’t find enough teachers. The companies filling the gaps are making billions. (The Beam 7/23)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Cities conserve as Colorado River reservoir faces ‘dead pool’ crisis (USA Today 7/27)
Housing / real estate: Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Levels in Nearly a Year (7/23 WSJ)
Mexico/trade: USMCA fails to renew – but it’s not over yet (Brookings 7/17)
Prices/inflation: Oil prices and container shipping costs (FRBSL 7/17)
Public finance: A fiscal year built on assumptions already under stress (Governing 7/28)
Wages/income/wealth: The income-wellbeing gap is broader than you think (Brookings 7/16)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Big companies are starting to hire again, defying predictions of AI wipeout (WSJ 7/26)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.