High-Frequency Update: 8-23-26

Aug. 23, 2026

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Gasoline prices edged up as conflicts in the Middle East dragged on

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 2,558 for the week ending August 15, down from 2,854 the prior week. The number of initial claims was down 23.2% over the year and 29.6% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted) declined to 172,080 for the week ending August 15, down from 189,203 the prior week. That was down 11.4% over the year and 11.9% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. regular gas price rose to $4.049/gallon for the week ending August 17, up from $4.006/gallon the prior week. That was up 29.6% over the year and 17.1% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. movie box office sales moderated to $231.4 million for the week ending August 20, down from $296.7 million (revised up) the prior week. That was up 72.9% over the year and 46.5% from the 2023-25 average for this week. New movie releases were down 11.0% over the year and 2.5% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate fell to 68.0% for the week ending August 15, down from 70.0% the prior week. That was up 2.6% over the year and 1.9% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput declined to 17.8 million for the week ending August 15. That was down 2.8% over the year and 0.3% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications is published by the Census Bureau only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for July ranged from 680 to 810. Applications that month were down 1.6% from the 2023-25 average for July.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Underinvestment in Indian Country: how federal and philanthropic funding to Native Americans falls short, and how to fix it (Brookings 8/11)
Automation / AI: International comparisons show AI effect on productivity (FRBD 7/7)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Arizona draws boomers and Gen X but fails to crack top 10 for millennials, Gen Z (PBJ 8/13)
Federal statistics: Census proposal would stop counting undocumented immigrants – and ignore race and sexual orientation (Wired 8/8)
Economy: Financial markets, oil prices, and supply-side risks (FRBSF 8/10)
Education / early childhood development: What do students lose when they stop writing? (NYT 8/17)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: The Colorado River is shrinking. See how authorities are trying to save it. (WSJ 8/16)
Housing / real estate: U.S. home-builder sentiment still muted by affordability concerns (WSJ 8/17)
Mexico/trade: Avocado pickers in Mexico welcome restart of exports to US, but security fears remain (AP 8/16)
Prices/inflation: When oil prices drop, why do gasoline prices stay elevated? (FRBSL 8/11)
Public finance: U.S. debt just topped $40 trillion: how we got here (WSJ 8/19)
Wages/income/wealth: As inflation eats up pay gains, workers fall behind (NYT 8/15)
Workforce/employment/labor market: New evidence on data center employment effects (Brookings 8/10)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.