High-Frequency Update: 8-30-26

Today

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Gasoline prices stayed above $4 per gallon as conflicts in the Middle East dragged on

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 2,566 for the week ending August 22, down from 2,712 (revised up) the prior week. The number of initial claims was down 22.5% over the year and 27.8% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted) fell to 169,786 for the week ending August 22, down from 173,017 (revised up) the prior week. That was down 11.2% over the year and 11.8% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. regular gas price stayed above $4/gallon for the sixth consecutive week, edging up to $4.085/gallon for the week ending August 24, up from $4.049/gallon the prior week. That was up 29.8% over the year and 19.3% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. movie box office sales moderated to $178.9 million for the week ending August 27, down from $231.4 million the prior week. That was up 72.5% over the year and 50.9% from the 2023-25 average for this week. New movie releases were down 23.8% over the year and 14.9% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate fell to 66.7% for the week ending August 22, down from 68.0% the prior week. That was up 2.0% over the year and 1.8% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput declined to 17.0 million for the week ending August 22. That was down 3.7% over the year and 0.9% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications is published by the Census Bureau only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for July ranged from 680 to 810. Applications that month were down 1.6% from the 2023-25 average for July.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Phoenix among top US cities poised to benefit from trillion-dollar advanced manufacturing wave (PBJ 8/26)
Automation / AI: Evaluating predictions of AI use and actual use (BEA 8/25)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Big city growth is slowing, reversing a post-pandemic resurgence (Brookings 8/17)
Economy: How does productivity affect inflation, jobs and pay? (FRBSL 8/26)
Education / early childhood development: The state of public education in 2026 in five charts (Rand 8/17)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: E.P.A. moves to curb public input on data centers (NYT 8/25)
Federal statistics: Experts raise alarms over Census Bureau report Trump is touting on noncitizen voting (NPR 8/20)
Housing / real estate: Here’s why the Phoenix metro’s housing market remains under pressure (PBJ 8/25)
Mexico/trade: How tariffs on Canada could raise cost of these Arizona grocery items (AR 8/19)
Prices/inflation: The prices of diesel, the ‘workhorse’ of fuels, nears a record high (NYT 8/26)
Public finance: The SNAP state cost-shift policy leaves the program’s existence to chance (Hamilton Project 8/25)
Wages/income/wealth: How does the college premium change over a career? (FRBSL 8/20)
Workforce/employment/labor market: The U.S. created 79,000 fewer jobs than previously reported, new revisions suggest (WSJ 8/28)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.