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High-Frequency Update: 8-31-25

Aug. 31, 2025
By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

U.S. TSA traveler throughput up modestly over the year

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped modestly to 3,241 for the week ended August 23, down from 3,329 the prior week. That was down 15.7% over the year and down 8.3% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked down to 191,289 for the week ended August 23, down from 194,162 the prior week. That was down 0.8% over the year but up 8.2% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate dropped for the fifth consecutive week, reaching 65.4% for the week ended August 23. That was down 1.1% over the year and down 6.7% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales fell to $102.3 million for the week ended August 28, down from $132.0 million the prior week. That was down 19.4% over the year and down 34.4% from 2019. New movie releases were down 38.8% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput fell to 17.7 million for the week ended August 23, down from 18.3 million the prior week. That was up 0.7% over the year and up 4.9% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In July, weekly new business applications ranged from 670 to 830. Overall, applications were up significantly over the year in July.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Arizona’s 100 biggest employers in 2025, ranked. How things are changing (AR 8/27)
Automation / AI: Is AI contributing to rising unemployment? Evidence from occupational variation (FRNSL 8/26)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Source data innovation at the Census Bureau: Improving the quality and sustainability of our statistics (Census Bureau 8/19)
Economy: States begin to see job losses from Trump’s cuts, housing and spending slowdowns (Stateline 8/28)
Education / early childhood development: Declining public school enrollment (Brookings 8/27)
 Energy / environment / infrastructure:Yes, AI is power-hungry. But there’s more to surging electricity prices (CSM 8/20)
Housing / real estate:  How Arizona’s apartment market measures up among cities nationally (PBJ 8/26)
Commercial real estate: The A.I. spending frenzy is propping up the real economy, too (NYT 8/27)
 Mexico/trade: Small parcels, big problems: modernizing de minimis in a global economy (Brookings 8/28)
Public finance: Revenue growth uneven across states as fiscal challenges loom (Urban Inst 8/27)
Wages/income/wealth: Arizona’s minimum wage is among the highest in the US. But is it enough? (AR 8/28)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Lower immigration projections mean lower breakeven employment growth estimates (FRBSL 8/28) 

Weekly Indicators 

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.