High-Frequency Update: 9-14-25

Sept. 14, 2025

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

Arizona new business applications strong again in August

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 2,670 for the week ended September 6, down from 2,980 the prior week. That was down 22.5% over the year and down 20.0% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 204,581 for the week ended September 6, up fro 196,712 the prior week. That was up 14.5% over the year and up 27.6% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate fell to 57.7% for the week ended September 6, down from 63.4% the prior week. That was down 0.2% over the year and down 5.4% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales spiked to $159.0 million for the week ended September 11, up from $95.9 million the prior week. That was down 15.0% over the year and down 10.9% from 2019. New movie releases were down 33.6% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput declined to 16.1 million for the week ended September 6, down from 17.5 million the prior week. That was down 0.5% over the year but up 13.6% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In August, weekly new business applications ranged from 650 to 850. Overall, applications were up significantly over the year in July.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: What one of Arizona’s top economic development pros sees in metro Phoenix’s future (AR 9/10)
Automation / AI: Generative AI at the crossroads: light bulb, dynamo, or microscope? (Brookings 9/9)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Poverty dropped in most states last year, but trend could reverse as cuts loom (Stateline 9/11)
Federal statistics: When federal data disappear, so does the ability to make effective policy (Urban Inst 9/8)
Economy: Why has consumer spending remained so resilient? Evidence from credit card data (FRBB 8/13)
Education / early childhood development: A new Nation’s Report Card shows drops in science, math and reading scores (NPR 9/9)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Trump’s clean energy reversal puts Arizona solar projects worth $1.6B at risk (AZPM 9/4)
Housing / real estate: Here’s what happens when private equity buys homes in your neighborhood (NPR 9/9)
Mexico/trade: Effects of tariff uncertainty on the outlook of small and medium-sized businesses (FRBB 9/5)
Prices/inflation: Health care costs are soaring. Blame insurers, drug companies – and your employer (NPR 9/12)
Wages/income/wealth: Inflation erased U.S. income gains last year (WSJ 9/9)
Workforce/employment/labor market: BLS revision shows hiring was overstated by 911,000 jobs in past year (NPR 9/9)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.