High-Frequency Update: 9-20-26

Today

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Persistent upward pressure on energy prices

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 2,335 for the week ending September 12, down from 2,516 the prior week, consistent with seasonal patterns. The number of initial claims was down 38.5% over the year and 34.8% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted) dropped to 152,286 for the week ending September 12, down from 177,695 (revised up) the prior week. That was down 22.1% over the year and 18.2% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. regular gas price jumped to $4.319/gallon for the week ending September 14, up from $4.157/gallon the prior week. Diesel price reached a new record high during the same week, averaging $6.285/gallon nationally, up 68.1% over the year. Gasoline price was up 36.3% over the year and 26.7% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. movie box office sales moderated to $114.5 million for the week ending September 17, down from $140.5 million (revised up) the prior week. That was down 40.0% over the year and 14.2% from the 2023-25 average for this week. New movie releases were down 27.4% over the year and 10.7% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate fell to 62.3% for the week ending September 12, down from 63.0% the prior week. That was down 4.7% over the year and 6.4% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput fell to 16.0 million for the week ending September 12. That was down 2.5% over the year and 1.8% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications is published by the Census Bureau only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for August ranged from 710 to 810. Applications that month were up 14.9% from the 2023-25 average for August.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: More people are betting on prediction markets during football season. Here’s why that matters. (Urban Inst 9/16)
Automation / AI: AI-Augmented capital-skill complementarity (FRBC 9/4)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Will the new public charge rule lower enrollment in safety net programs? (Econofact 9/16)
Economy: Solid economic data show U.S. economy running hot ahead of Fed decision (WSJ 9/16)
Education / early childhood development: Community colleges: beyond the numbers (FRBR)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Making chips takes water. Arizona wants to reuse it (AR 9/12)
Housing / real estate: As data centers spread, not all U.S. housing markets react the same way (NPR 9/12)
Mexico/trade: U.S. pressures Mexico to box out China’s AI hardware exports (WSJ 9/15)
Prices/inflation: Are high energy prices here to stay? The economy has answers. (WSJ 9/15)
Public finance: Bessent says the U.S. can grow its way out of the debt crunch. What would it take? (WSJ 9/13)
Wages/income/wealth: American incomes hit record last year as women gained ground (WSJ 9/15)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Worker types, AI exposure and the recent decline in job-finding rates (FRBR)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.