High-Frequency Update: 9-7-26

Monday

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Travel activities declined ahead of Labor Day

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 2,337 for the week ending August 29, down from 2,566 the prior week. The number of initial claims was down 21.6% over the year and 30.8% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted) edged up to 170,626 for the week ending August 29, up from 170,596 (revised up) the prior week. That was down 13.3% over the year and 11.6% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. regular gas price edged down to $4.071/gallon for the week ending August 31, down from $4.085/gallon the prior week. That was up 28.1% over the year and 18.9% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. movie box office sales moderated to $140.5 million for the week ending September 3, down from $180.0 million (revised up) the prior week. That was up 47.1% over the year and 18.3% from the 2023-25 average for this week. New movie releases were down 10.3% over the year and 0.9% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate declined to 64.1% for the week ending August 29, down from 66.7% the prior week. That was up 1.1% over the year and 1.2% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput declined to 16.1 million for the week ending August 29. That was down 7.9% over the year and 4.9% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications is published by the Census Bureau only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for July ranged from 680 to 810. Applications that month were down 1.6% from the 2023-25 average for July.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Tim Steller’s column: Choosy Tucson governments seek ideal business fit (ADS 8/30)
Automation / AI: What work does generative AI do? (FRBSL 9/1)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: NPR spent 2 years tracking deaths from heat. We found a staggering hidden toll (NPR 8/31)
Economy: What does a bond selloff mean for American consumers? (WSJ 9/2)
Education / early childhood development: Preparing students for what comes next (RAND 8/31)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Why outdoors groups don’t like a Forest Service proposal to end the roadless rule (KJZZ 9/2)
Federal statistics: Political meddling at the Census Bureau damages the entire US statistical system (PIIE 9/1)
Housing / real estate: Rebuilding construction: why disruptors are betting on women (Forbes 8/28)
Mexico/trade: Look beyond doom and gloom: tariffs could help reshape Canada-AZ business relationship (PBJ 9/3)
Prices/inflation: US diesel prices hit a record high, pushing up transportation costs for a long list of goods (AP 9/4)
Public finance: Bond sell-off threatens to squeeze borrowers around the world (NYT 9/1)
Wages/income/wealth: How does federal income tax progressivity vary by income source? (FRBSL 9/3)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Where have the workers gone? 2 million foreign-born men have left the country, analysis says. (Stateline 9/3)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.