Prescott MSA September 2023 Summary

Sept. 28, 2023

By Delaney O’Kray-Murphy, EBRC Research Economist

Housing units continue to decline over the year

Exhibit 1 presents current Prescott MSA economic indicators.

In August 2023, the seasonally adjusted civilian labor force in the Prescott MSA grew by 0.9% over the year, reaching 109,986. That fell slightly short of its peak this year in July, which reached 110,102 at a 2.8% over-the-year growth but showed the same positive movement seen throughout 2023, with monthly year-over-year gains ranging from 0.9%-2.8%.

In August 2023, resident employment in the Prescott MSA experienced a similar trend, showing a 0.3% seasonally adjusted increase over the year to reach 105,721. Throughout the year so far, all months have shown solid employment gains, with employment peaking in May at 106,392.

Despite the solid gains in both employment and the civilian labor force, the unemployment rate in the Prescott MSA has been experiencing significant over-the-year increases, reaching 3.8% in August, a 0.5 percentage point increase from last year. However, it is important to note that these increases do not necessarily indicate a real problem with the overall job market. Instead, they may simply reflect the low unemployment rates in 2022. For context, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rates in the U.S. and Arizona both hit 3.8% in August.

Non-seasonally adjusted average hourly earnings have been slightly declining throughout the course of 2023, with earnings in August sinking to $24.93 hourly, a 2.0% decrease over the year. Annually, the August rate translates to an annual salary of approximately $51,854.

Total nonfarm jobs have shown steady over-the-year improvement throughout 2023. In August, the number of seasonally adjusted jobs hit 69,400, a 0.6% growth over the year. In comparison, Arizona gained 57,000 to reach 3,163,300 in August, a 1.8% increase, and the U.S. gained 3,087,000 jobs to reach 156,419,000 jobs, a 2.0% increase over the year.

Federal Government has shown the largest percentage gain over the year, coming in at a 5.9% increase from the same period last year, Professional and Business Services has shown the largest losses, diminishing by 3.6%. Other gains occurred in Mining, Logging, and Construction (4.4%), Other Services (4.2%), Private Education and Health Services (3.3%), and State and Local Government (2.2%). Trade, Transportation, and Utilities and Leisure and Hospitality both saw losses of 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively. The remaining sectors: Manufacturing, Information, and Financial Activities, experienced no changes over the year.

Retail sales have seen strong growth from April to July this year. Retail sales less food and gasoline hit $261.6 million in July, showing a 13.1% increase over the year. Each month this year since April has seen growth over the year in taxable sales, with April through June showing growths of 2.3%, 8.1%, and 3.1%. March saw the greatest decline this year, sinking 5.8% from last year.

Residential housing permits in the Prescott MSA have largely slumped in 2023. While April broke the negative trend for total units, coming in at 241 and showing a 113.3% over-the-year increase, each other month has shown declines in both single-family and total permits issued. In August 2023, total permits came in at 111, a 75.0% decrease over the year. Of these permits, 101 were for single-family homes, representing a 12.2% slump over the year.