S&P Global U.S. Forecast Update January 2026
Sahm Rule triggered, but recession unlikely
S&P Global have released their January 2026 forecast update for the U.S. The current forecast is based on the following assumptions:
- The forecast includes the direct effects of the partial government shutdown and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which indefinitely extends cuts to marginal personal tax rates enacted in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and adds new deductions for tip income and overtime pay, among other personal tax provisions. The OBBBA includes increased federal direct spending but reduces outlays for Medicaid, ACA insurance premium tax credits, and SNAP benefits. It also introduces new expensing provisions and expanded deductions for businesses and corporations, while rescinding most of the clean-energy tax credits introduced by the Inflation Reduction Act.
- This forecast incorporates the existing Section 232 tariffs, along with new Section 232 tariffs of 10% on critical minerals effective in first-quarter 2027. Additional tariffs on furniture, cabinetry, and semiconductors have been delayed by a year or more compared to previous expectations, and are now assumed not to take effect. S&P Global assumes International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs related to fentanyl flows and immigration, including a 10% tariff on imports from China, a 35% tariff on imports from Canada, and a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, with the latter two declining to 15% by mid-2026. The forecast also includes “reciprocal” tariffs announced on August 1 or later, ranging from 10% to 40%.
- Deportations, combined with a sharply reduced inflow of immigrants, will lower U.S. aggregate supply and aggregate demand. This forecast assumes net international migration will be reduced, relative to Census projections, by roughly 500,000 per year over the four years of the Trump presidency.
- Unspent pandemic-era funds, as well as monies authorized under the Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act (IIJA), mitigated pressures to reduce state and local government spending. States generally remain fiscally sound and are expected to take on a larger share of Medicaid benefits as federal spending is reduced.
- The Fed cut rates at the December 2025 meeting by 25 basis points, in line with expectations. The Fed is expected to pause over the first half of 2026 before resuming rate cuts in June. The Fed reaches the long run “neutral” range of 3.00-3.25% by September 2026.
- Real foreign GDP grew 2.1% in 2024 and is estimated at 2.4% in 2025. Growth is expected to slow to 2.0% in 2026. Foreign CPI inflation was estimated at 2.3% in 2025 and is expected to ease to 2.2% in 2026. Foreign sovereign bond yields are projected to average 3.0% from 2025 through 2029.
- Brent crude oil prices rose to $113 per barrel in the second quarter of 2022, up from $80 in the fourth quarter of 2021. Prices were estimated at $69 in 2025 and are forecast to fall to $59 in 2026, rebound to $64 in 2027, and then gradually rise at the rate of inflation.
The baseline forecast (summarized here) is assigned a 50% probability. The pessimistic scenario is assigned 20%, and the optimistic scenario is assigned the remaining 30%. These percentages are unchanged from the prior forecast.
After increasing by 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024, the baseline forecast calls for real GDP growth to drop to 2.2% in 2025 and rise to 2.3% in 2026. On a quarterly basis, the forecast calls for real GDP to increase through 2035 (no recession).
Headline inflation spiked in 2022 to 8.0%, then decelerated to 4.1% in 2023 and 3.0% in 2024. It is forecast to fall further to 2.7% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, then rise to 2.8% in 2027.
The unemployment rate peaked at 8.1% in 2020 but fell to 5.4% in 2021 and again to 3.6% in 2022. It remained at 3.6% in 2023 and rose to 4.0% in 2024. Unemployment is forecast to rise to 4.3% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026 before gradually decreasing.
Nonfarm payroll jobs nationally dropped by 5.8% in 2020 but rebounded with growth of 2.9% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022. Jobs rose by 2.2% in 2023 and slowed to 1.3% in 2024. Job growth is forecast to slow further to 0.9% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026 and 2027.
Housing starts surged in 2021 to 1.61 million units. Activity remained strong in 2022 at 1.55 million. Starts fell to 1.42 million in 2023 and 1.37 million in 2024. They are forecast to fall to 1.34 million in 2025 and 1.31 million in 2026-2027, as high interest rates and inflation take a toll on housing activity.
Exhibit 1 summarizes the January 2026 forecast from S&P Global. Exhibit 2 shows the December 2025 projections and Exhibit 3 shows the difference.
Exhibit 1: S&P Global January 2026 Forecast for the U.S., Over-the-Year Percent Change or Level
Exhibit 2: S&P Global December 2025 Forecast for the U.S., Over-the-Year Percent Change or Level
Exhibit 3: Differences in S&P Global U.S. Projections: January 2026 Versus December 2025 (Percentage Point Differences, Except for Housing Starts)
