S&P Global U.S. Forecast Update June 2023
End of debt limit crisis pushes U.S. forecast up
S&P Global have released their June 2023 forecast update for the U.S. The current forecast is based on the following assumptions:
- The forecast includes the Fiscal Responsibility Acts of 2023. The forecast reflects current corporate tax law and personal income tax policy. Pandemic-era programs expire on time (Child Tax Credit, SNAP extension, Medicaid increase). It does not include the cancellation of any student debt but assumes that student load forbearance expires at the end of August.
- The Fed is assumed to raise its policy rate to a range of 5.25%-5.50% in July. It temporarily overshoots the terminal range of 2.5%-2.75%. The Fed’s balance sheet declines by about one-third through 2024.
- Tariffs and trade agreements between the U.S. and China since 2017 are assumed to continue.
- Real foreign GDP contracted by 4.7% in 2020. Growth rebounded to 5.6% in 2021 and then decelerated to 3.3% in 2022. The forecast calls for it to slow again in 2023 to 2.0%.
- The price of Brent crude oil rose to $113 per barrel in the second quarter of 2022, up from $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2021. The price is forecast to drop to $83 per barrel in 2024, in response to slowing global growth.
The baseline forecast (summarized here) is assigned a 55% probability. The pessimistic scenario is assigned 25% and the optimistic scenario is assigned the remaining 20%. These are unchanged from May.
After increasing by 2.1% in 2022, the baseline forecast calls for real GDP growth to slow to 1.5% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024. The economy is projected to be stronger than last month, reflecting more robust underlying data and the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis. The fiscal impact of the Fiscal Responsibility Act is assumed to be modest.
On a quarterly basis, the forecast calls for real GDP to increase through 2033. S&P Global has removed a decline in the second quarter of 2023 from the forecast.
Headline inflation spiked in 2022 to 8.0%. It is forecast to decelerate to 4.2% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024.
The unemployment rate peaked at 8.1% for the year in 2020 but fell to 5.4% in 2021 and again to 3.6% in 2022. It is forecast to remain at 3.6% in 2023 and rise to 4.0% in 2024.
Nonfarm payroll jobs nationally dropped by 5.8% in 2020 but rebounded with growth of 2.9% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022. The forecast calls for jobs to rise by 2.3% in 2023 and 0.2% in 2024.
Housing starts surged in 2021 to 1.61 million units. Activity remained strong in 2022 at 1.55 million. The forecast calls for starts to drop to 1.36 million in 2023 and 1.33 million in 2024, as interest rate increases take a toll on housing activity.
Exhibit 1 summarizes the June 2023 forecast from S&P Global. Exhibit 2 shows the May 2023 projections and Exhibit 3 shows the difference.
Exhibit 1: S&P Global June 2023 Forecast for the U.S., Over-the-Year Percent Change or Level
Exhibit 2: S&P Global May 2023 Forecast for the U.S., Over-the-Year Percent Change or Level
Exhibit 3: Differences in S&P Global U.S. Projections: June 2023 Versus May 2023 (Percentage Point Differences, Except for Housing Starts)
