High-Frequency Update: 2-15-26

Feb. 15, 2026

By George W. Hammond, EBRC research professor

Arizona new business applications remained strong last month

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up to 2,529 for the week ended February 7, up from 2,500 the prior week. That was down 17.7% over the year and down 23.6% from 2019.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 248,397 for the week ended February 7, down from 252,952 the prior week. That was up 6.7% over the year and up 2.3% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate rose to 56.4% for the week ended February 7, up from 54.0% the prior week. That was up 0.9% over the year but down 5.8% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales fell to $81.1 million for the week ended February 12, down from $108.9 million the prior week. That was up 6.4% over the year but down 53.3% from 2019. New movie releases were down 34.3% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput rose to 14.5 million for the week ended February 7, up from 13.0 million the prior week. That was up 1.6% over the year and up 13.2% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for January ranged from a high of 920 to a low of 200 during the holiday week. Overall, new business applications remain strong, compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Autonomous truck operator expands to Phoenix (AR 2/13)
Automation / AI: AI agents emerge as a key retail trend for Southern Arizona businesses (ITB 2/9)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: US births dropped last year, suggesting the 2024 uptick was short-lived (AP 2/6)
Federal statistics: Do government shutdowns affect subsequent data revisions? (FRBSL 2/10)
Economy: How important is the services sector to the U.S. economy? (FRBSL 2/11)
Education / early childhood development: Are young college graduates losing their edge in the job market? (FRBC 11/24)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: The Colorado River is having its driest winter in decades (KJZZ 2/9)
Housing / real estate: Where are mortgage delinquencies rising the most? (FRBNY 2/10)
Commercial real estate: Not a bust, but a reset: Tucson’s commercial real estate market finds its new (ITB 2/9)
Mexico/trade: The causal effects of tariff uncertainty on consumers’ macroeconomic expectations and spending plans (FRBC 2/11)
Prices/inflation: Inflation measure falls to nearly five-year low as gas prices fall and housing costs cool (AP 2/13)
Public finance: State reserves shrink for the first time since the Great Recession (Governing 2/11)
Wages/income/wealth: Are baby boomers wealthier than previous generations of older adults? (Pew 2/11)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Healthcare jobs have become the engine of America’s labor market (WSJ 2/11)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.