High-Frequency Update: 3-23-25

March 23, 2025

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

U.S. hotel occupancy rose last week but remained below pre-pandemic levels

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up to 3,646 for the week ended March 15, up from 3,594 the prior week. That was up 9.5% over the year and up 7.6% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 206,503 for the week ended March 15, down from 214,005 the prior week. That was up 7.7% over the year and up 6.3% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate rose to 64.2% for the week ended March 15, up from 62.4% the prior week. That was down 3.5% over the year and down 8.5% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales fell to $74.0 million for the week ended March 20, down from $79.6 million the prior week. That was down 39.1% over the year and down 60.6% from 2019. New movie releases were down 43.4% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput jumped to 17.4 million for the week ended March 15, up from 16.5 million the prior week. That was down 0.6% over the year but up 4.9% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In February, weekly new business applications ranged from 720 to 810. While new business applications started the month slowly, compared to a year ago, they picked up steam to close out the month.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Why Social Security disinformation is dangerous (Brookings 3/18)
Automation / AI: How A.I. is changing the way the world builds computers (NYT 3/16)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Metro Monitor 2025: Growth and affordability trends in US metro areas over the past decade (Brookings 3/13)
Economy: Consumers and businesses send distress signal as economic fear sets in (WSJ 3/15)
Education / early childhood development: What the data says about the U.S. Department of Education (Pew 3/18)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Forget about rare earth minerals. We need more copper (NPR 3/16)
Housing / real estate: Tariffs on lumber and appliances set stage for higher costs on new homes and remodeling projects (AP 3/17)
Commercial real estate: Federal lease cancellations could have big impact on office market in Phoenix (AR 3/18)
Mexico/trade: Arizona-Mexico Commission wrestles with uncertainty as tariffs loom (KJZZ 3/20)
Prices/inflation: Long-run inflation expectations (FRBC)
Wages/income/wealth: 5 ways American spending has changed since the first stimulus check (Nasdaq 3/13)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Exploring regional patterns in federal agency workforces (Policy Viz 3/19)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.