High-Frequency Update: 5-11-25

May 11, 2025

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate ticked up last week

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped for the week ended May 3, reaching 3,956. That was down from 4,666 the prior week and down 15.5% over the year. Claims were down 14.6% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 206,937 for the week ended May 3, down from 223,909 the prior week. That was down 1.5% over the year but up 1.4% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate ticked up to 65.8% for the week ended May 3, up from 65.1% the prior week. That was up 2.2% over the year but down 4.8% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales fell to $190.4 million for the week ended May 8, down from $198.4 million the prior week. That was up 91.7% over the year but down 26.1% from 2019. New movie releases were down 44.9% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput fell to 17.3 million for the week ended May 3, down from 17.7 million the prior week. That was up 1.0% over the year and up 6.2% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In March, weekly new business applications ranged from 1,100 to 720. A business application total of 1,100 was very high and represented an increase over the year of 59.4%.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Brace yourself if you live here: these 10 states are least ready to weather a 2025 recession (PRNewswire 5/8)
Automation / AI: China’s AI models are closing the gap – but America’s real advantage lies elsewhere (RAND 5/2)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: The forces driving increased Medicaid costs for states (Governing 5/5)
Economy: Are revisions to state-level GDP data in the US well behaved? (FRBC)
Education / early childhood development: Tucson eyes early childhood education cuts amid budget strain (AZPM 5/8)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: A dry winter on the Colorado River has big reservoirs on track for trouble (AZPM 5/8)
Housing / real estate: Metro Phoenix homes are significantly newer than most US cities. Is that good or bad? (AR 5/5)
Mexico/trade: Amid Cinco de Mayo celebrations, a tax on Mexican tomatoes looms (AP 5/4)
Prices/inflation: Household’s preferences over inflation and monetary policy tradeoffs (FRBC 4/24)
Public finance: Why stablecoin issuers could displace Japan and China as the biggest buyers of U.S. Treasury securities (Forbes 5/6)
Wages/income/wealth: Growing share of U.S. adults say their personal finances will be worse a year from now (Pew 5/7)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Corporate America is leaving more jobs unfilled (WSJ 5/4)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.