High-Frequency Update: 6-28-26

Sunday

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Gas prices fell six straight weeks but remain elevated

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 2,684 for the week ended June 20, down from 3,065 the prior week. That was down 22.7% over the year and down 35.8% from 2019.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped to 207,133 for the week ended June 20, up from 220,642 the prior week. That was down 9.0% over the year and down 8.3% from 2019.

U.S. regular gas price declined to $3.914/gallon for the week ended June 22, down from $4.052/gallon the prior week. That was a consecutive sixth weekly decline but still up 21.8% over the year.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate climbed to 71.3% for the week ended June 20, up from 69.9% the prior week. That was up 1.1% over the year but still down 5.6% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales slid to $307.9 million for the week ended June 25, up from $184.9 million the prior week. That was up 63.2% over the year but down 2.7% from 2019. New movie releases were down 51.5% over the year and 70.8% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput climbed to 19.3 million for the week ended June 20, up from 18.7 million the prior week. That was up 0.3% over the year and up 5.8% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for May ranged from 770 to 880. Overall, new business applications have been trending up but remain a touch below levels reached in 2023.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: These 5 Arizona state parks draw the biggest crowds every year (AR 6/25)
Automation / AI: AI is plowing through the workplace. This new group wants to help people adapt and have jobs (AP 6/25)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: How states can plan now for an aging nation (Governing 6/22)
Economy: Warsh’s first test as Fed chairman: reading the AI boom (WSJ 6/19)
Education / early childhood development: Some good – and not-so-good – news on kid’s well-being (Governing 6/25)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: A solution to A.I.’s growing power demand: homes (NYT 6/24)
Housing / real estate: Buying a home has gotten harder for young adults in most U.S. metro areas (Pew 6/24)
Mexico/trade: Trade war and the dollar anchor (Brookings 6/19)
Prices/inflation: The data-center boom is sparking a third wave of inflation (WSJ 6/24)
Public finance: How extreme heat is reshaping state budgets (Governing 6/24)
Wages/income/wealth: The post-COVID decline in labor share (FRBNY 6/24)
Workforce/employment/labor market: It’s(still) the business cycle: young adult workers in a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market (FRBSL 6/22)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.