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High-Frequency Update: 7-27-25

July 27, 2025
By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance fell last week

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 3,665 for the week ended July 19, down from 4,679 the prior week. That was down 16.4% over the year and down 19.4% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 215,792 for the week ended July 19, down from 261,111 the prior week. That was down 4.4% over the year but up 9.9% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate bounced up to 71.6% for the week ended July 19, up from 67.2% the prior week. That was down 2.6% over the year and down 8.1% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales fell to $202.5 million for the week ended July 24, down from $300.1 million the prior week. That was down 11.8% over the year and down 48.2% from 2019. New movie releases were down 47.8% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput ticked up to 19.6 million for the week ended July 19, up from 19.3 million the prior week. That was up 2.3% over the year and up 8.0% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In June, weekly new business applications ranged from 650 to 970. Overall, applications were up significantly over the year in June.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Index of state dynamism (EIG) [AZ ranks 9th]
Automation / AI: The use of AI in the health care workplace: the U.S. experience (FRNSL 7/15)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: The US fertility rate reached a new low in 2024, CDC data shows (AP 7/24)
 Economy: Will tariffs cause a recession? Probably not (Forbes 7/17)
Education / early childhood development: Public school enrollment continues to fall (Stateline 7/14)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: AI’s power problem: who pays the price? (Governing 7/21)
Housing / real estate: Inventory rises to highest level since 2019, shifting US housing market more towards buyers (PBJ 7/23)
Commercial real estate: A community guide to office-to-residential conversion: Part 2, policy levers (Brookings 7/17)
Mexico/trade: An anatomy of U.S. establishments’ trade linkages in global value chains (Census)
Prices/inflation: The differences between prices and inflation explained (FRBSL 7/16)
Wages/income/wealth: Who lends to households and firms? (FRBNY 7/14)
Workforce/employment/labor market: U.S. retirement normalization following the COVID-19 pandemic (FRBSL 7/14)
 

Weekly Indicators 

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.