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High-Frequency Update: 7-7-24

July 7, 2024
By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

U.S. TSA traveler throughput trending up

third-quarter-2020-forecast-update-webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance bounced up to 4,165 for the week ended June 29, up from 4,055 the prior week. That was up 13.6% over the year but down 1.0% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 5.4% over the year for the week ended June 29, to 238,149. Claims were up from 225,100 the prior week and up 6.0% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate increased to 71.9% for the week ended June 29. That was up from 69.5% the prior week and up 2.9% over the year. The occupancy rate was down 4.8% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales rose to $265.3 million for the week ended July 4, up from $232.6 million the prior week. That was up 13.3% over the year but down 19.7% from 2019. New movie releases were down 45.0% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput dropped to 18.2 million for the week ended July 6, down from 19.8 million the prior week. That was up 8.1% over the year and up 9.5% from 2019.

Arizona new business applications dropped to 670 for the week ended June 15, down from 700 the prior week. That was down 5.6% over the year.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: The state of Southern Arizona defense contractors (ITB 6/27)

Automation / AI: Tracking firm use of AI in real time: a snapshot from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (CB) 

Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: The fertility crisis is here and it will permanently alter the economy (CNN 6/25)

Economy: Fearing losses, banks are quietly dumping real estate loans (NYT 6/24)

Education / early childhood development: Twelve facts about the economics of education (Brookings 6/27)

Energy / environment / infrastructure: Does Arizona have enough water? Phoenix-area cities are spending big to make sure it does (Cronkite 6/25) 

Housing / real estate: Arizona home insurance rates have soared. Why the state is leading the US (AR 6/22)

Prices/inflation: Deciphering the disinflation process (FRBNY 6/24)

Public finance: As budgets tighten, states weigh whether to tap rainy day funds (Governing 6/25)

Workforce/employment/labor market: The power of inclusive labor force participation for mitigating population aging: closing gaps at the intersection between race/ethnicity and gender in the United States (NBER)

Weekly Indicators 

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.