High-Frequency Update: 8-17-25

Aug. 17, 2025

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

Arizona new business applications still strong in July

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up to 3,564 for the week ended August 9, up from 3,523 the prior week. That was down 15.4% over the year and down 7.6% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 199,186 for the week ended August 9, up from 195,492 the prior week. That was down 0.8% over the year but up 6.6% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate dropped to 68.0% for the week ended August 9, down from 69.5% the prior week. That was down 1.0% over the year and down 8.2% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales bounced up to $196.1 million for the week ended August 14, up from $180.9 million the prior week. That was down 15.5% over the year and down 3.2% from 2019. New movie releases were down 50.4% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput dropped to 18.9 million down from 19.5 million the prior week. That was up 1.9% over the year and up 5.6% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In July, weekly new business applications ranged from 670 to 830. Overall, applications were up significantly over the year in July.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: US crime rates fell nationwide in 2024, FBI report says (Stateline 8/8)
Automation / AI: Why AI demand for energy will continue to increase (Brookings 8/12)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Why is geographic mobility declining? (FRBR)
Federal statistics: Trump’s war on data will do lasting harm (FT 8/6)
Economy: Tracking business sentiment in the western United States (FRBSF 8/11)
Education / early childhood development: The jobs and degrees underemployed college graduates have (FRBSL 8/13)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Rivian says it faces $100 million hole after relaxation of fuel economy rules (WSJ 8/14)
Housing / real estate: Who is still on first? An update of characteristics of first-time homebuyers (FRBNY 8/11)
Mexico/trade: Trump’s tariff revenue has skyrocketed. But how big is it, really? (NPR 8/11)
Prices/inflation: What price changes contributed the most to increases in the CPI in 2024? (BLS)
Public finance: Impacts of government spending changes on local economies (FRBR)
Wages/income/wealth: Impacts of the Retirement Savings for Americans Act: a preliminary analysis using the RAND budget model (RAND 8/12)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Goodbye, $165,000 tech jobs. Student coders seek work at Chipotle. (NYT 8/10)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.