Prescott MSA August 2026 Summary

Friday

Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Employment

Non-seasonally adjusted civilian labor force in the Prescott Valley-Prescott MSA declined in the second quarter of 2026, while average hourly earnings growth accelerated in recent months. In April, private earnings rose 7.1% over the year, followed by paces of 9.6% in May and 15.0% in June, respectively. June’s hourly rate of $30.91 is roughly equivalent to an annual salary of $64,293 for a full-time worker.

Non-seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment in the Prescott MSA posted negative year-over-year changes in April (-1.4%) and May (-1.5%), before registering a flat reading in June. Raw job gains in the first quarter had all been lost by June, which is the typical seasonal pattern. Seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment in the Prescott MSA changed little in the second quarter, with mixed changes in different sectors. Total jobs rose 0.3% from March to April, and then stayed unchanged at 72,300 through June. Statewide, payroll employment was higher over the year in all three months of the second quarter.

Based on non-seasonally adjusted payroll employment data, sectors that added jobs over the year during the second quarter were Private Education and Health Services (+3.1% in June), State and Local Government (4.6% in June), and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (1.5% in June). Sectors that led job losses were Professional and Business Services (-2.9% in June), Leisure and Hospitality (-3.9% in June), Manufacturing (-8.3% in June), and Federal Government (-5.3% in June).

On the other hand, Professional and Business Services experienced the most significant year-over-year decline in March, falling 8.5% to 6,500, followed by Federal Government, which decreased 5.3% to 1,800. Other notable decreases occurred in Leisure and Hospitality (-4.8%), Manufacturing (-2.9%), Mining, Logging, and Construction (-1.4%), and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (-1.4%). No changes occurred year-over-year in Information, Financial Activities, and Other Services.

Spending

Non-seasonally adjusted retail sales excluding food or gasoline in the Prescott MSA decreased by 8.4% over the year in April ($240.1 million) before rebounding to 1.6% higher over the year in May ($270.3 million). The slowdown in April was consistent with low retail sales statewide for the month, but the magnitude of the decline was larger than the state or other bigger MSAs, mainly reflecting the volatility of retail sales in Prescott.

Housing

Non-seasonally adjusted housing permits in the Prescott MSA plunged in April and stabilized thereafter, following large increases in February and March. Total permits dropped by 63.8% over the year to just 98 units in April, by 29.2% to 97 units in May, and by 58.9% to 118 units in June. Single-family permits closely tracked total permits in April (96 units) and May (89 units), and declined further in June (-40.4% over the year, or 84 units).

Exhibit 1 presents current Prescott MSA economic indicators.