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High-Frequency Update: 10-13-24

Oct. 13, 2024
By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

Arizona new business applications weakened in the second half of September

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Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 3,608 for the week ended October 5, down from 3,675 the prior week. That was down 1.9% over the year and down 4.4% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance spiked to 234,780 for the week ended October 5, up from 181,210 the prior week. That was up 17.5% over the year and up 24.8% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate dropped to 65.6% for the week ended October 5, down from 68.4% the prior week. That was down 3.2% over the year and down 3.7% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales fell to $112.8 million for the week ended October 10, down from $120.8 million the prior week. That was up 11.3% over the year but down 48.0% from 2019. New movie releases were down 47.5% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput was steady at 16.9 million for the week ended October 5. That was down 0.8% over the year but up 6.7% from 2019.

Weekly data Arizona new business applications will continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In September Arizona new business applications increased over the year for the first two weeks but weakened in the second half of the month. Applications were down 7.4% over the year for the week ended September 28, at 630.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: This is the best small city in Arizona, new study shows. Here’s why it’s No. 1 (AR 10/8)
Automation / AI: Generative AI, the American worker, and the future of work (Brookings 10/10)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Birth dearth and local population decline (Upjohn 10/9)
Economy: U.S. consumer confidence declines unexpectedly as election nears (WSJ 10/11)
Education / early childhood development: Arizona teacher shortage persists, new survey data shows (AR 10/4)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Lithium liabilities: the untold threat to water in the rush to mine American lithium (Cronkite)
Housing / real estate:  Metro Phoenix evictions on pace to hit yearly record. How much do renters owe? (AR 10/11)
Prices/inflation: Prices are up in all U.S. metro areas, but some much more than others (Pew 10/7)
Public finance: U.S. budget deficit rises to $1.8 trillion in 2024 (NYT 10/8)
Wages/income/wealth: A new indicator of labor market tightness for predicting wage inflation (FRBNY 10/9)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Why did labor force nonparticipation increase from 1999 to 2022? (BLS)

 

Weekly Indicators 

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.