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High-Frequency Update: 10-19-26

Today
By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Fuel prices edged down yet remained elevated; strong business formation

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 2,475 for the week ending October 10, up from 2,318 (revised up) the prior week. The number of initial claims was down 13.6% over the year and 22.5% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted) jumped to 190,626 for the week ending October 10, up from 171,170 (revised up) the prior week. That was down 9.6% over the year and 7.5% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. regular gas price fell to $4.331/gallon for the week ending October 12, down from $4.354/gallon the prior week. That was up 41.5% over the year and 32.5% from the 2023-25 average for this week. Diesel prices averaged $6.179/gallon in the U.S. for the week ending October 12, down 0.3% over the week, yet up 68.6% over the year. 

U.S. movie box office sales eased to $122.4 million for the week ending October 15, down from $132.9 million (revised up) the prior week. That was up 24.4% over the year and 2.1% from the 2023-25 average for this week. New movie releases were down 8.7% over the year and 5.5% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate climbed to 70.6% for the week ending October 10, up from 67.2% the prior week. That was up 2.2% over the year and 1.9% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput climbed to 17.9 million for the week ending October 10. That was down 2.6% over the year but up 1.0% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications is published by the Census Bureau only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for September ranged from 610 to 990. Applications that month were up 1.6% from the 2023-25 average for September.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Kalshi is launching prediction apps with Native American tribes. That’s dividing Indian country (CNN 10/7)
Automation / AI: Still waters, rapid currents: early labor market transformation under generative AI (Brookings 10/6) 
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: The US opioid epidemic at a turning point (Lancet 9/9) 
Economy: The mighty American consumer is crashing through inflation and driving growth (WSJ 10/4)  
Education / early childhood development: Map: Teacher pay raises and the cost of living (Governing 10/6)  
Energy / environment / infrastructure: The 100-year-old math miscalculation that broke the Colorado River (WSJ 10/9)
Federal statistics: What removing questions about race from the U.S. Census means for Native Americans (Podcast - NAC 10/6) 
Housing / real estate: The affordability paradox: why cheaper homes are harder to finance (FRBSL 10/7)
Mexico/trade: Tariffs increased in 2025; why did U.S. imports grow? (FRBD 10/6)  
Prices/inflation: How fast do tariffs pass through into consumer prices? (FRBNY 10/6)  
Public finance: Why investors worldwide hold U.S. government debt (FRBSL 10/7) 
Wages/income/wealth: Job-hopping got workers an 18% raise in 2022. Now it’s 8% - and Gen Z is hurt the most (Fortune 10/7) 
Workforce/employment/labor market: Which workers left the labor force post-COVID recession and why? Filing, tax credit take-up, and labor force engagement by occupation (NBER)

Weekly Indicators 

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.