High-Frequency Update: 12-15-24

Dec. 15, 2024

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

Arizona new business applications showed strength in November

third-quarter-2020-forecast-update-webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 2,999 for the week ended December 7, up from 1,983 the prior week. That was down 15.4% over the year and down 27.1% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance spiked to 310,366 for the week ended December 7, up from 211,226 the prior week. That was up 24.6% over the year but down 2.4% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate bouced up to 59.0% for the week ended December 7, up from 50.0% the prior week. That was up 0.5% over the year but down 2.2% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales dropped to $181.1 million for the week ended December 12, down from $338.5 million the prior week. That was up 86.5% over the year and up 45.1% from 2019. New movie releases were down 36.5% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput was unchanged over the week at 17.3 million for the week ended December 7. Throughput was up 14.0% over the year and up 7.4% from 2019.

Weekly data Arizona new business applications will continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In November, Arizona new business applications increased over the year for five consecutive weeks (weeks ended November 2, 9, 16, 23, and 30). During the period, applications averaged 730 per week.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Phoenix ranks among America’s most debt-ridden cities, study finds (PBJ 12/6)
Automation / AI: The AI challenge is about more than just a race between the US and China (Milken 12/4)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Immigration and the macroeconomy in the second Trump administration (Hamilton Project 12/3)
Economy: Supply chain uncertainty (RAND 12/4)
Education / early childhood development: Virtual teachers step in as school district grapples with educator shortage (Route Fifty 12/5)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Are water resources keeping up with U.S. economic needs? (FRBSF 12/2)
Housing / real estate: Construction industry braces for one-two punch: tariffs and deportations (WSJ 12/3)
Mexico/trade: Assessing Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada (Brookings 12/3)
Prices/inflation: How climate risks are driving up insurance premiums around the US – visualized (Guardian 12/5)
Wages/income/wealth: Growth of sports betting may be linked to financial woes, new studies find (Stateline 12/5)
Workforce/employment/labor market: The softening labor market is still growing (Brookings 12/5)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.