High-Frequency Update: 7-12-26

Today

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Gas price pressure eases as summer travel begins

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased again to 1,971 for the week ended July 4, down from 2,883 the prior week. That was down 43.5% over the year and down 55.3% from 2019.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted) rose to 224,583 for the week ended July 4, up from 214,616 the prior week. That was down 7.0% over the year and down 3.2% from 2019.

U.S. regular gas price declined to $3.777/gallon for the week ended July 6, down from $3.831/gallon the prior week. That was a consecutive seventh weekly decline but still up 20.9% over the year.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate dropped to 63.5% for the week ended July 4, down from 72.2% the prior week. That was up 3.9% over the year but down 2.8% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales declined to $190.0 million for the week ended July 9, down from $254.1 million the prior week. That was down 20.5% over the year and 32.6% from 2019. New movie releases were down 14.3% over the year and 52.2% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput declined to 18.1 million for the week ended July 4, down from 19.5 million the prior week. That was down 1.6% over the year yet up 9.1% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for May ranged from 770 to 880. Overall, new business applications have been trending up but remain a touch below levels reached in 2023.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: What to know about U.S. oil production and consumption in 6 charts (Pew 7/7)
Automation / AI: Data center backlash signals a fight over AI power (Brookings 7/7)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: The landscape of elder care in the United States: Part 1 – where older Americans live and why it matters (FRBC)
The landscape of elder care in the United States: Part 2 – the cost and quality of care (FRBC)
Economy: Reassessing the relationship between consumer sentiment and spending with a new composite index (FRBC 6/30)
Education / early childhood development: Some good – and not-so-good – news on kid’s well-being (Governing 6/25)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Climate change could double household water costs in some cities, study finds (Stateline 7/9)
Housing / real estate: Spring home-selling season ends on a bad note (WSJ 7/9)
Mexico/trade: USMCA review reviewed: lessons from the first use of USMCA’s review mechanism (Brookings 7/2)
Prices/inflation: More tariff pass-through is in the pipeline (FRBNY 7/8)
Public finance: Gas tax relief leaves a $533 million road funding gap (Governing 7/9)
Wages/income/wealth: The racial wealth gap undermines the declaration’s promise (Brookings 7/6)
Workforce/employment/labor market: This factory was severely short on workers. Then it offered flexible work (NPR 7/8)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.