High-Frequency Update: 12-29-24

Dec. 29, 2024

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

U.S. movie box office sales spiked last week, reflecting the Christmas holdiay

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked down for the week ended December 21 to 2,646. That was down from 2,840 the prior week and down 12.5% over the year. Claims were also down 19.7% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance bounced up to 274,734 for the week ended December 21, up from 252,071 the prior week. That was unchanged over the year but down 4.4% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate has not yet been released for the week ended December 21.

U.S. movie box office sales spiked to $263.0 million for the week ended December 26, up from $129.6 million for the prior week. That was down 6.1% over the year and down 45.8% from 2019. New movie releases were down 35.8% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput rose to 17.7 million for the week ended December 21, up from 16.6 million the prior week. That was changed over the year but up 8.2% from 2019.

Weekly data Arizona new business applications will continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In November, Arizona new business applications increased over the year for five consecutive weeks (weeks ended November 2, 9, 16, 23, and 30). During the period, applications averaged 730 per week.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Insurers are deserting homeowners as climate shocks worsen (NYT 12/18)
Automation / AI: AI and the future of work [video] (RAND 12/18)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Which places would be most affected by the Trump administration’s immigrant deportation proposals? (Brookings 12/18)
Economy: How will the Federal Reserve revise its monetary policy framework in 2025? (Brookings 12/18)
Education / early childhood development: What is the value of the Child and Dependent Care Credit? (Upjohn 12/13)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: How utilities are working to meet AI data centers’ voracious appetite for electricity (Route-Fifty 12/17)
Housing / real estate: Why is the US in a housing crisis, and what can be done about it? (CSM 12/12)
Mexico/trade: Vietnam won big in Donald Trump’s first trade war. Now, it’s a target (WSJ 12/16)
Prices/inflation: Inflation disagreement weakens the power of monetary policy (FRB)
Public finance: How should we tax the Great Wealth Transfer? (Brookings 12/12)
Wages/income/wealth: Who depends most on Washington? Rural counties that voted heavily for Trump (Governing 12/18)
Workforce/employment/labor market: The rise in remote work since the pandemic and its impact on productivity (BLS)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.