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High-Frequency Update: 6-15-25

June 15, 2025
By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance bounced up last week

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 4,054 for the week ended June 7, up from 3,689 the prior week. That was down 11.9% over the year and down 13.2% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 244,752 for the week ended June 7, up from 208,969 the prior week. That was up 3.7% over the year and up 11.2% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate rose to 67.0% for the week ended June 7, up from 61.0% the prior week. That was down 3.0% over the year and down 6.9% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales dropped to $160.4 million for the week ended June 12, down from $207.3 million the prior week. That was up 6.3% over the year but down 33.7% from 2019. New movie releases were down 51.5% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput ticked up to 17.9 million for the week ended June 7, up from 17.8 million the prior week. That was down 3.8% over the year but up 4.5% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In May, weekly new business applications ranged from 670 to 870. Overall, applications were up significantly over the year in May.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Phoenix: TSMC and tech jobs transforming desert, city and economy (AR 6/13)
Automation / AI: This A.I. company wants to take your job (NYT 6/11)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Do American workers still move to find work? (Brookings 6/12)
 Economy: Is all this talk of recession indicators a sign a recession is coming? (KJZZ 6/10)
Education / early childhood development: Should the U.S. lean into short-term, nondegree workforce education and training? Yes, but carefully (RAND 6/5)
Energy / environment / infrastructure:  Republicans in Congress axed the ‘green new scam,’ but it’s a red state boon (Stateline 6/6)
Housing / real estate: Sellers outnumber prospective homebuyers as high prices and mortgage rates skew the housing market (AP 5/30)
Mexico/trade: Trump tariff revenue soars 78%. Who’s paying them? (NPR 6/9)
Prices/inflation: Inflation is holding steady as Trump’s tariffs have yet to fully hit (NPR 6/11)
Wages/income/wealth: What drives consumer interest rates? (FRBM 6/3)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Flash Report: May unemployment flows suggest some labor market weakening (FRBSL 6/6)

Weekly Indicators 

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.