High-Frequency Update: 8-9-26

Today

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Gas prices edged up amid consumer resilience

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 2,663 for the week ending August 1, down from 3,059 (revised up) the prior week. The number of initial claims was down 24.4% over the year and down 31.9% from 2019.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted) fell to 171,246 for the week ending August 1, down from 176,535 the prior week. That was down 12.4% over the year and down 4.8% from 2019.

U.S. regular gas price edged down to $4.079/gallon for the week ending August 3, down from $4.096/gallon the prior week. That was up 29.9% over the year.

U.S. movie box office sales spiked to a historic high of $637.3 million for the week ending August 6, up from $235.8 million the prior week. Driven by the highest domestic opening weekend box office sales from Spider-Man: Brand New Day and the strong holdovers from The Odyssey, the gross U.S. box office sales were up 249.9% over the year and 180.1% from 2019. New movie releases were down 12.9% over the year and 54.2% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate fell to 71.3% for the week ending August 1, down from 72.5% the prior week. That was up 2.6% over the year but down 4.7% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput fell to 19.0 million for the week ending August 1. That was down 2.6% over the year yet up 4.6% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications is published by the Census Bureau only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for June ranged from 750 to 880. Overall, new business applications continue to trend up but remain a touch below levels reached in 2023.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics:Arizona ranks No. 4 for economy but drops in US News Best States rankings (PBJ 7/27)
Automation / AI: AI and productivity: what firms are saying on earnings calls (FRBSL 7/31)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Uninsured patients rise sharply, hospitals report, citing Obamacare cuts (NYT 7/30)
Economy: Do vibes predict recessions? Evidence from a big-data forecasting framework (FRBSF 7/17)
Education / early childhood development: Struggling colleges raiding their endowments to pay the bills (WSJ 8/2)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Report: States would lose millions for transportation under congressional proposal (Governing 7/30)
Housing / real estate: The renter-owner wealth gap is wider than ever, as many are priced out of buying (NPR 7/30)
Mexico/trade: Mexican economy bounces back in second quarter (WSJ 7/30)
Prices/inflation: Fed’s preferred inflation index cooled but remained elevated in June (WSJ 7/30)
Public finance: Federal spending mapping tools (RAND 7/23)
Wages/income/wealth: I’ve spent years studying economic data. These Americans taught me what ‘affordability’ really means (CNN 7/16)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Local labor market tightness and job quality: evidence from job changers (Upjohn)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.