High-Frequency Update: 11-3-24

Nov. 3, 2024

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance fell for the third straight week

third-quarter-2020-forecast-update-webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped for the third consecutive week, reaching 2,836 for the week ended October 26. That was down 13.6% over the year and down 26.9% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance also dropped for the third consecutive week, to 200,132. That was down from 203,481 the prior week but up 0.4% over the year. Claims were up 0.7% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate fell to 69.0% for the week ended October 26, down from 70.1% the prior week. That was up 4.5% over the year but down 2.1% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales rose to $127.0 million for the week ended October 31, up from $94.3 million the prior week. That was down 19.0% over the year and down 15.2% from 2019. New movie releases were down 45.4% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput fell to 17.8 million for the week ended October 26, down from 18.1 million the prior week. That was up 4.5% over the year and up 7.3% from 2019.

Weekly data Arizona new business applications will continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In September Arizona new business applications increased over the year for the first two weeks but weakened in the second half of the month. Applications were down 7.4% over the year for the week ended September 28, at 630.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Automation / AI: OpenAI is rolling out a web search feature for ChatGPT (NPR 11/1)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Behind the numbers of Hispanic employment (EPI 10/25)
Economy: A better way of understanding the US consumer: decomposing retail spending by household income (FRBOG 10/11)
Education / early childhood development: 5 facts about child care costs in the U.S. (Pew 10/25)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Self-driving care aren’t here yet, but states are getting the rules ready (Stateline 10/28)
Housing / real estate: A look at the state of affordable housing in the U.S. (Pew 10/25)
Commercial real estate: Foreclosure activity on commercial properties is up, lenders take different approaches on delinquent loans (PBJ 10/28)
Prices/inflation: Inflation decline continue to support a soft landing along the nonlinear Phillips curve (FRBSF 10/17)
Wages/income/wealth: Has pay kept up with inflation? (Brookings 10/31)
Workforce/employment/labor market: The softening labor market shows resilience and some pockets of slack (Brookings 10/31)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.