High-Frequency Update: 3-16-25

March 16, 2025

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

Arizona new business applications started slow in February, but ended strong

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 3,528 for the week ended March 8, up from 3,137 the prior week. That was down 4.2% over the year but up 3.7% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped from 226,019 the prior week to 212,817 for the week ended March 8. That was up 5.0% over the year and up 1.7% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate ticked down to 62.4% for the week ended March 8, down from 62.8% the prior week. That was down 1.3% over the year and down 6.6% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales rose to $79.5 million for the week ended March 13, up from $74.2 million the prior week. That was down 57.9% over the year and down 71.7% from 2019. New movie releases were down 39.3% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput ticked up from 16.4 million the prior week to 16.5 million for the week ended March 8. That was down 1.8% over the year but up 4.3% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In February, weekly new business applications ranged from 720 to 810. While new business applications started the month slowly, compared to a year ago, they picked up steam to close out the month.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Federal science grants worth $812M could be caught in Trump’s DEI dragnet at Arizona universities, including research on wildfires, pollution and public health (Cronkite 3/10)
Automation / AI: ‘Not your parents’ automation’: How generative AI will impact jobs in major cities (Route Fifty 2/24)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Medicaid and CHIP coverage mapped by congressional district (Governing 3/11)
Economy: Some ways mass deportation could impact state economies (Governing 3/7)
Education / early childhood development: Trump administration is gutting the National Center for Education Statistics (EPI 3/13)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Federal lease terminations threaten five National Park Service facilities in Arizona (AZPM 3/10)
Housing / real estate: How much do you need to earn to afford a modest apartment in your state? (NLIHC)
Mexico/trade: Fluctuating tariffs causing instability for Arizona produce (AZPM 3/8)
Prices/inflation: The fiscal origin of the COVID-19 price surge (FRBSL 3/6)
Public finance: 2024 government revenue and spending
Wages/income/wealth: Cryptocurrency ownership among U.S. households (FRBSL 3/11)
Workforce/employment/labor market: The new geography of manufacturing jobs (Agglomerations 2/28)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.