High-Frequency Update: 5-18-25

May 18, 2025

By George W. Hammond, EBRC director and Eller research professor

Arizona new business applications were strong again in April

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 3,618 for the week ended May 10, down from 3,846 the prior week. That was down 15.6% over the year and down 15.2% from 2019.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked down to 205,183 for the week ended May 10, down from 207,813 the prior week. That was up 3.8% over the year and up 9.0% from 2019.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate dropped to 64.6% for the week ended May 10, down from 65.8% the prior week. That was down 2.3% over the year and down 5.4% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales fell to $115.4 million for the week ended May 15, down from $190.4 million the prior week. That was down 10.6% over the year and down 47.4% from 2019. New movie releases were down 38.5% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput was steady for the week ended May 10, at 17.3 million. That was down 3.3% over the year but up 4.9% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications continue to be published by the Census Bureau, but only on a monthly basis. In April, weekly new business applications ranged from 730 to 1,010. A business application total of 1,010 was very high and represented an increase over the year of 36.5%.

Data on seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app is no longer being updated to compare the current week to 2019 results.

As of October 15, 2022, Google stopped updating mobility data.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: Economic diversity and the resilience of cities (FRBA 3/24)
Automation / AI: Will AI and robots replace farmworkers in Arizona? Gowers experiment with new technology (AR 5/12)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: Children’s health services could see trims even under scaled-back Medicaid cuts (Stateline 5/12)
Economy: Industry-level growth, AI use and the U.S. postpandemic recovery (FRBSL 5/13)
Education / early childhood development: Republican-led states keep adding school voucher programs even as critics worry about cost (AP 4/28)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: New rules for using purified wastewater give Arizona cities more options (Cronkite 5/12)
Housing / real estate: The spring home sales season is shaping up to be a dud (WSJ 5/10)
Commercial real estate: Rest of year isn’t looking good for retail-property market (WSJ 5/12)
Mexico/trade: The impacts of US tariffs on North American auto manufacturing and implications for USMCA (Brookings 5/13)
Prices/inflation: Walmart says higher prices from tariffs coming as soon as this month (NPR 5/15)
Public finance: Will the reconciliation bill’s Child Tax Credit changes leave out children in low-income working families? (Brookings 5/12)
Wages/income/wealth: Student loan delinquencies are back, and credit scores take a tumble (FRBNY 5/13)
Workforce/employment/labor market: Why aren’t Americans filling the manufacturing jobs we already have? (NPR 5/13)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.