Prescott MSA February 2024 Summary

Feb. 6, 2024

By Delaney O’Kray-Murphy, EBRC Research Economist

Single-family permits show notable over the year growth in the final quarter of 2023

Exhibit 1 presents current Prescott MSA economic indicators.

In December 2023, the seasonally adjusted labor force in the Prescott MSA grew by 0.7% over the year, reaching 110,379. That fell slightly short of its peak last November, which reached 111,121 at a 1.9% over-the-year growth but exhibited the same positive movement seen throughout 2023, with monthly year-over-year gains ranging from 0.7%-2.8%.

In December 2023, resident employment in the Prescott MSA experienced a similar trend, displaying a slight 0.1% seasonally adjusted increase over the year to reach 106,152. Throughout the year, all months have indicated employment gains, peaking in November with 106,687.

Despite the solid gains in both employment and civilian labor force, the unemployment rate in the Prescott MSA has been experiencing significant over the year increases, reaching 3.9% in December, a 0.7 percentage point increase from last year. However, it is important to note that these increases do not necessarily indicate a problem with the overall job market. Instead, they may simply reflect the low unemployment rates in 2022. For context, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rates in the U.S. and Arizona hit 3.7% and 4.3%, respectively.

Non-seasonally adjusted hourly earnings have seen continuous over-the-year decreases throughout 2023, with earnings in December sinking 1.4% to $25.91. The December rate translates to an annual salary of approximately $53,893.

Total nonfarm jobs ended the year continuing the streak of over-the-year improvements. In December, the number of seasonally adjusted jobs hit 70,100, a 0.7% over-the-year growth. In comparison, Arizona gained 66,700 jobs over the year to reach 3,189,300, a 2.1% expansion, and the U.S. gained 3,056,000 to reach 157,347,000, a 2.0% increase.

Employment in federal government showed the chief percentage gain over the year, coming in at an 11.8% increase from last December to 1,900, while manufacturing experienced the greatest losses, diminishing by 2.5% to 3,900. Also adding jobs were mining, logging, and construction (4.3% to 7,200), other services (4.2% to 2,500), state and local government (3.3% to 9,300), and private education and health services (2.4% to 12,700). Manufacturing (-2.5% to 3,900), trade, transportation, and utilities (-2.1% to 13,800), and professional and business services (-1.9% to 5,300) all experienced declines in this period. The remaining sectors: information and financial activities, observed no changes.

Non-seasonally adjusted retail sales slowed near the end of the year in the Prescott MSA. Retail sales less food and gasoline slipped in both October and November, falling by 2.7% and 0.8%, respectively. October sales landed at $243.0 million, and November sales slightly beat that at $249.9 million.

The last quarter of 2023 showed surprising non-seasonally adjusted residential housing permit growth in the Prescott MSA. While only October and December exhibited over-the-year growth in total permits, October, November, and December all displayed growth in single-family units, with 119 (32.2%), 108 (18.7%), and 102 (92.5%), respectively. Regarding total permits, while November suffered a 17.7% decrease to 116, both October and December flaunted over 100 percent increases, landing at 195 (116.7%) and 112 (103.6%), respectively.