Clone of High-Frequency Update: 7-26-26

Today

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Hotel occupancy boosted by the World Cup

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 3,177 for the week ending July 18, down from 3,410 the prior week. The number of initial claims was down 14.6% over the year and down 30.2% from 2019.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted) fell to 192,296 for the week ending July 18, down from 246,014 the prior week. That was down 11.0% over the year and down 2.1% from 2019.

U.S. regular gas price climbed to $4.001/gallon for the week ending July 20, up from $3.855/gallon the prior week. That was up 28.2% over the year and followed four weeks of sub-four-dollar prices.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate climbed to 72.4% for the week ending July 18, up from 67.6% the prior week, supported by tourism in World Cup host cities. That was up 1.1% over the year but down 7.1% from 2019.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput remained at 18.9 million for the week ending July 18. That was down 3.5% over the year yet up 4.3% from 2019.

U.S. movie box office sales jumped to $306.0 million for the week ending July 23, up from $194.0 million the prior week. That was up 51.0% over the year yet down 21.7% from 2019. New movie releases were down 20.0% over the year and 54.0% from 2019.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications is published by the Census Bureau only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for June ranged from 750 to 880. Overall, new business applications continue to trend up but remain a touch below levels reached in 2023.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: What to know about U.S. oil production and consumption in 6 charts (Pew 7/7)
Automation / AI: Innovation Booms, Easy Financing, and Human Capital Accumulation (FRBA)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: The landscape of elder care in the United States: Part 1 – where older Americans live and why it matters (FRBC)
The landscape of elder care in the United States: Part 2 – the cost and quality of care (FRBC)
Economy: Warsh’s First Big Call: Whether to Undo Last Year’s Cuts (7/12 WSJ)
Education / early childhood development: Some good – and not-so-good – news on kid’s well-being (Governing 6/25)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: Climate change could double household water costs in some cities, study finds (Stateline 7/9)
Housing / real estate: Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Levels in Nearly a Year (7/23 WSJ)
Mexico/trade: The State of U.S. Tariffs (The Budget Lab 7/24)
Prices/inflation: More tariff pass-through is in the pipeline (FRBNY 7/8)
Public finance: From Stocks to Flows: Debt Service and Fiscal Sustainability (NBER July 2026)
Wages/income/wealth: The racial wealth gap undermines the declaration’s promise (Brookings 7/6)
Workforce/employment/labor market: This factory was severely short on workers. Then it offered flexible work (NPR 7/8)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.