High-Frequency Update: 9-27-26

Today

By Niaoniao You, EBRC Senior Economic Forecaster

Unemployment insurance initial claims signal stable labor markets

Third quarter 2020 forecast update webinar

Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up to 2,343 for the week ending September 19, up from 2,335 (revised up) the prior week. The number of initial claims was down 10.4% over the year and 25.7% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted) climbed to 163,811 for the week ending September 19, up from 153,568 (revised up) the prior week. That was down 9.5% over the year and 8.7% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. regular gas price climbed to $4.478/gallon for the week ending September 21, up from $4.319/gallon the prior week. That was up 41.1% over the year and 31.8% from the 2023-25 average for this week. In Arizona, regular gasoline prices averaged $4.827/gallon statewide, with drivers paying $4.893/gallon in the Phoenix area and $4.633/gallon in Tucson. Across the other 12 Arizona areas AAA reports, the price ranged from $4.583/gallon in Sierra Vista-Douglas to $5.019/gallon in Scottsdale.

U.S. movie box office sales jumped to $150.5 million for the week ending September 24, up from $114.6 million (revised down) the prior week. That was up 50.2% over the year and 61.4% from the 2023-25 average for this week. New movie releases were down 15.2% over the year and 7.8% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

The U.S. hotel occupancy rate jumped to 71.1% for the week ending September 19, up from 62.3% the prior week. That was up 4.4% over the year and 3.8% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

U.S. TSA traveler throughput climbed to 16.7 million for the week ending September 19. That was down 3.5% over the year and 2.0% from the 2023-25 average for this week.

Weekly data on Arizona new business applications is published by the Census Bureau only on a monthly basis. Weekly data for August ranged from 710 to 810. Applications that month were up 14.9% from the 2023-25 average for August.

Key News Articles and Research (subscription may be required)

Curated by Valorie Rice, Senior Business Information Specialist

Arizona and general topics: American farmers are hurting – and worried about their futures (NPR 9/25)
Automation / AI: Financing the AI buildout (Brookings 9/23)
Demographic / socioeconomic / Census: How did the post-pandemic migration surge affect labor and housing markets? (Brookings 9/23)
Economy: From importer to exporter: oil shocks and the US economy (Brookings 9/23)
Education / early childhood development: Beyond diplomas: nondegree credentials linked to higher earnings (Census 9/22)
Energy / environment / infrastructure: New 160-acre data center proposed in Sahuarita (ADS 9/24)
Federal statistics: Warren demands Trump officials explain removing a ban on interference in census data (NPR 9/24)
Housing / real estate: Portland real estate is such a mess that all housing is affordable housing (WSJ 9/25)
Mexico/trade: Shipping cost shocks and US producer prices: normal versus crisis pass-through (FRBA 9/21)
Prices/inflation: Truck drivers are feeling the financial pinch of record-high diesel fuel prices (KJZZ 9/24)
Public finance: The SNAP state cost-shift policy leaves the program’s existence to chance (Hamilton Project 8/25)
Wages/income/wealth: Falling behind? State and local government employee compensation since the Great Recession (Brookings 9/23)
Workforce/employment/labor market: The short-run employment effects of the 2025 U.S. tariffs (FRBC)

Weekly Indicators

Use your cursor as a tooltip and click on charts to view values. Click on the names of indicators listed at the bottom any chart to switch them on/off to view fewer at one time and make comparisons. Icons allow you to download and share.

Note: The official initial claims for unemployment insurance numbers for the U.S. are released every Thursday morning covering the week ending on the previous Saturday.

Note: See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude.

The U.S. Census Bureau continues to produce weekly estimates; however, the weekly estimate files are published as part of the Monthly Business Formation Statistics (BFS) Release.One key dataset with these estimates is High-Propensity Business Applications, a subset of total weekly business applications in Arizona that measures the number of applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll, based on various factors. These data reflect weekly applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Arizona which are likely to result in employment and wages. These include applications: (a) from a corporate entity, (b) that indicate they are hiring employees, purchasing a business or changing organizational type, (c) that provide a first wages-paid date (planned wages); or (d) that have a NAICS industry code in manufacturing (31-33), retail stores (44), health care (62), or restaurants/food service (72). Applications for EINs occur before the jobs and wages are added, so this is a leading indicator. Read more about the Business Application dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau.